Bruce Nyman

The battle for Dean Skelos’s seat begins to take shape

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Editor’s note: Tom Suozzi, who has declared his candidacy for the seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District being vacated by Rep. Steve Israel, is taking a leave of absence from his column. Bruce Nyman is taking his place.

The special election to fill the State Senate’s 9th District seat, formerly held by Majority Leader Dean Skelos, is set for April 19, the same day as New York’s presidential primary. Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky, a Democratic former federal prosecutor, will face off against former Nassau County Bar Association President Christopher McGrath, a Republican.

This is big! Everyone says so. It’s a heavyweight fight destined to shift the balance of power in Albany’s Legislature, measure the pulse of the voters and determine the future of all life in New York state.

Or maybe not.

You see, a shift in control of the Senate may be only mathematical. There are 31 Republicans and 31 Democrats, but because a handful of those Democrats sometimes vote with Republicans to make a majority, even if Kaminsky wins on April 19, we’re not so sure what will happen on the 20th.

Does it even matter? In the November election, all 63 Senate seats are up. And if Hillary Clinton is at the top of the ticket, we’re sure that thousands more Democratic voters will be drawn to the polls, ensuring Democratic victories down the line. So who cares who wins the special election in April, if Hillary carries the day in November?

But maybe not. Under attack for years, Clinton may finally wear out by November. Or, more confounding, Donald Trump might be the Republican presidential nominee, ensuring a larger Republican turnout. Then all bets are off.

Clearly, we can’t wait until then. And anyway, the Kaminsky-McGrath fight has already started. Last week, the Democrats said, “Voters are tired of high-priced personal injury lawyers looking to drive more business to their law firms . . . Nassau voters deserve a senator who will work for them and put their needs first, and that clearly isn’t Christopher McGrath.”

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