Will Republicans be celebrating in November?

At the beginning of the year, Republicans from Washington to the far-off hustings were toasting the coming November election with predictions of a mass wipeout of incumbent Democrats. As we approach midyear, much of that early excitement has collided with the reality that no one can truly predict what will happen come Election Day.

What changed the political game so quickly for the party of Lincoln? The first three months of the year, on top of last year’s shrill debate about health care, made many Republicans confident that health care alone would do serious damage to the Democratic Party.

But the battle over health care is now over, and the ugly, partisan back-and-forth has evaporated. Once the bill passed both houses, the public was given an in-depth explanation of the contents of the new law. Once the details were made clear, some undecided voters came to the conclusion that it wasn’t as bad as predicted.

Another happening that gave the Republicans a heightened sense of optimism was the birth of the Tea Party movement. In the beginning, Republicans viewed the Tea Party as a new and powerful ally that would be a branch of the party. The optimism about the movement has started to evaporate because the Tea Party has made it clear that it belongs to no one.

On a few occasions, Republican members of Congress have been invited to Tea Party functions — or have invited themselves and weren’t thrown out. Gradually that has changed. Tea Party protests are run by party activists who are not interested in partnering with any politician, unless it’s Sarah Palin.

Republicans desperately want party unity at a time when they sense that the Democrats are suffering incumbent anxiety. But Tea Party zealots refuse to cooperate. In Utah, the Tea Party army succeeded in kicking Republican Sen. Bob Bennett off the ballot because they didn’t like his votes in favor of the stimulus plan and the TARP money for the banks.

Florida Tea Party groups have forced Gov. Charlie Crist out of the Republican Senate race and have thrown their weight behind an arch-conservative, Marco Rubio. What was once a safe state for a Republican victory has now become a tossup state.

Palin is another problem for the national party. Wherever she goes, she attracts attention — often mob scenes — and at the same time she pushes other possible candidates for the White House off the stage. We rarely read anything in the papers about potential candidates Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Kyl and Tim Pawlenty because Palin has taken all the oxygen out of the 2012 campaign and hogs the spotlight for herself.

The Republican congressional minority hasn’t gotten the kind of traction it anticipated when the year began. Opposition to health care was a temporary boost to morale, but since then Congress has cracked down on financial markets, reformed credit card rules and ended college loan abuses, with most Republicans voting no.

New York state Republicans are in no better shape than the national party. The party has no real farm system that develops fresh faces to attract independent votes. The newly chosen slate that will take on Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and his Democratic team in the race for governor won’t get any national GOP money, and the possibility of a primary isn’t good news for gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio.

Last year’s victories in Nassau and Westchester counties were good news for Republicans. But both new county executives inherited massive deficits, and there are very few ways to balance their budgets. Tax increases are a no-no, and there’s no way to make enough budget cuts to make up the needed revenues.

There’s no doubt that the political picture will change in the months ahead, with the polls swinging back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. But the cocky campaign to dump Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid & Co. will most likely fall far short of its goals. Reality has set in, and maybe November won’t be the blowout that was predicted at the beginning of the year.

Jerry Kremer was a state assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He now heads Empire Government Strategies, a business development and legislative strategy firm. Comments about this column? JKremer@liherald.com.