For Democrats, Suozzi’s victory is nothing to brag about

Democrats were understandably elated when former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi won the special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Feb. 13, but they shouldn’t be popping any champagne. In truth, Suozzi’s victory over the Republicans’ candidate, Mazi Melesa Pilip, was a lot closer than it should have been.

Suozzi won just under 54 percent of the vote. Doesn’t that seem a little low? After all, he’s a former mayor of Glen Cove, a former Nassau County executive, and a former three-term representative of the district in Congress. Pilip, meanwhile, is a sophomore county legislator.

An alarming sign for me is the money spent by each campaign for each vote. Suozzi spent $2.36 million and won roughly 91,300 votes, meaning he spent almost $26 per vote. In comparison, Pilip spent just $714,000 and won roughly 78,200 votes, or just over $9 per vote.

That means that Pilip needed on average one-third the cash to bring her voters out to the polls. That indicates to me that Pilip’s voters were more excited and zealous. Suozzi, on the other hand, had to fight to bring Democrats out.

If Pilip and Suozzi had had the same fundraising numbers, and the cash-per-vote numbers held, Pilip would have garnered over three times her vote total. Even if we halved Suozzi’s advantage (to make the comparison a bit more realistic), Pilip still might have won, with over 58.5 percent of the vote, if she’d spent as much money as Suozzi.

To top it off, state Democrats are going to get another chance to draw district lines this year, meaning that Suozzi is almost certainly going to be redistricted into a safer, more heavily Democratic district. Why sink millions into an election that you most likely would have won more easily in nine months?

I read the election results this way: A Democratic political veteran with high name recognition and a 3-to-1 fundraising advantage won an election with the second-worst margin he’s won his House seat with, against a neophyte opponent no one had ever heard of, whom he probably would have more easily defeated in nine months.

So, Democrats, is this your grand victory?

Aside from that lingering question, Suozzi ran a good campaign. He attacked Pilip where he needed to and worked hard in just the couple of months that he had, barnstorming through the district. He held a large event in my native Westbury, which I appreciate. The difficult fight he had, and the difficult fight many Nassau Democrats have, was beyond his control.

For one thing, the political landscape on Long Island is shifting against Democrats. For years in Nassau County, the number of new voters registering as Democrats outpaced those registering as Republicans, but that is changing. In the towns of North Hempstead and Oyster Bay and the City of Glen Cove, which account for most of the population of the 3rd District, voter registration data for the past year confirms that the ratio of Democrats to Republicans is shrinking.

Area Democrats have also been suffering from guilt by association. The Nassau GOP has successfully associated local Democrats with their more left-leaning colleagues in New York City. The Long Islanders are branded with negative labels like “radical” and “socialist,” or worse, “radical socialist.”

Finally, local Democrats continue to be hammered on bail reform, affordable housing and crime. These attacks are nonsense, but they stick because there is no apparatus in place to respond. None of this is Suozzi’s fault. Rather, the problem lies squarely with the Nassau and state Democratic committees, which have poor fundraising operations, abysmal organizing capacity, and virtually nonexistent communication with voters.

The party is failing to recruit new members, and cannot adequately defend its candidates, let alone go on the offensive. The state Democratic Party continues to fail candidates like Suozzi and the voters that make their existence possible.

That’s why I don’t consider Suozzi’s victory any kind of Democratic renaissance. His hard-fought win doesn’t portend more party wins in Nassau, because a successful two-month campaign can’t fix a state Democratic Party that has lost almost every position of power on Long Island in the past eight years.

Matthew Adarichev is a public policy major at Hofstra University, a political activist and an aspiring journalist whose work has appeared in the Hofstra Chronicle and the Anton Media Group.