Bet on the next president? Not a chance.

Lately it’s been too hot to spend a lot of time on serious political matters. The State Legislature has gone home and won’t return until November, at the earliest. Congress ought to go home and stay there until they have a bipartisan agreement on tax cuts and new revenues. But I can’t resist the temptation to make a few observations.

Almost every day of the week, I get an inquiry from some friend or neighbor, asking who I think will be the next president. To start off, I quote the well-known and respected political pollster Doug Schoen, who stated that, right now, 46 percent of the country favors President Obama and 46 percent likes Mitt Romney. So a mere 8 percent of voters will decide the upcoming election.

Most of those 8 percent live in the so-called tossup states, like Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. What will sway them is anyone’s guess. What makes this election a cliffhanger is the uncertain state of the economy and the problems that both candidates face. Romney has to date run a one-issue campaign whose theme is that he isn’t Barack Obama. Observers on both sides will tell you that argument doesn’t resonate with independent voters.

The Romney candidacy follows the same pattern as the past five presidential campaigns. Republicans tend to pick candidates who they think are next in line and are “owed” the nomination. That explains how Bob Dole and John McCain wound up with the nomination. Charisma? Forget about it. The two Bushes weren’t exactly exciting, but they had weak opponents and were able to pull off wins.

Democrats don’t believe that anyone is next in line. They pick candidates who reflect the current thinking of the rank-and-file. Winning in November isn’t as important to many Democrats as getting their man to be the nominee. That’s how the party wound up with left-leaning George McGovern and Michael Dukakis.

After Romney lost out to John McCain four years ago, Republican elders decided that he was next in line and supported him in this year’s primaries. Ask most Republican leaders what they think of Romney and they’ll tell you they wish he was more outgoing and exciting, but he’s their man.