The unpredictability of Cuomo and Suozzi

Having been a player and observer in the political world for many decades, I’ve gotten used to surprises. I recall endorsing then New York City Mayor Ed Koch for governor, and seeing him lose to Mario Cuomo in the primary. I worked hard to help Eliot Spitzer become the state’s attorney general and governor, and then his political career imploded overnight. My latest puzzlement is what’s going on with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi.
There is no doubt that Cuomo has gone through a very difficult time. Having to resign as governor in the middle of your third term is surely a sad experience. It would seem that the most logical next step would be to take a long vacation and start planning some meaningful activities outside of politics. Regrettably, that isn’t the case, which makes the Cuomo saga totally unpredictable.
Instead of decompressing, Cuomo is spending some of his $16 million war chest on television advertisements telling the world that he was wronged and hinting at some kind of political comeback. His argument for exoneration is that no criminal charges were brought against him in connection with the complaints made by a number of women. But it is an accepted fact in the halls of Albany that had he not resigned, the Assembly was poised to begin impeachment proceedings against him, which would probably have resulted in a finding of guilt by the State Senate.
The deadline for filing petitions to run for statewide office is April 1. It’s always possible that since he has lots of money to spend, Cuomo could find a way to get on the ballot or try to run as an independent candidate. Public sentiment about his record in office shows that he is appreciated for his many accomplishments, but the majority of those polled aren’t in favor of his running for office again. Those polls, if accurate, should send him the message that for now, it’s time to retire, but Cuomo doesn’t follow a predictable path.
Almost every week I meet people who tell me that he got a raw deal, but I also meet voters who say they had enough of Cuomo, and would never support him again. If you polled the Assembly or the Senate on how their members felt about his possible return to public life, it would be hard to find anyone who was in favor of a Cuomo candidacy. Many describe him as a bully, and want no part of his dream to return to power. Many of the big political contributors have gone in a different direction, and are now writing big checks to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s campaign.

But will Cuomo decide to run again? It’s anybody’s guess.
Suozzi’s decision to run for governor set off another political guessing game. Despite the fact that his congressional district has been realigned, most observers agree that he could run for re-election and win. Suozzi began the year with $3 million in the bank and strong name recognition, thanks to his congressional activities. But instead of seeking a new term, he has chosen to run against Hochul, who has a reported $22 million on hand and is prepared to spend every penny of it in a primary contest.
Some people think Suozzi’s decision to run for statewide office is based on the likelihood that the Democratic Party’s House majority may be lost in November. Nonetheless, he has calculated that he can run a credible campaign. There isn’t much logic in politics, but it’s logical to conclude that with another challenger in the primary contest, Suozzi would have to pull off a major miracle to upset a sitting female governor. Stranger things have happened in this business, but you have to consider his race more than a long shot.
In the weeks and months ahead, we’ll see whether Cuomo can make some kind of political comeback with the odds stacked against him, and whether Suozzi has a secret plan to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, despite no signs, to date, of what that plan might be. But it’s the unpredictability of politics that makes the Cuomo and Suozzi sagas so interesting.

Jerry Kremer was a state assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He now heads Empire Government Strategies, a business development and legislative strategy firm. Comments about this column? JKremer@liherald.com.