After all the drama, it’s a dead heat

It seems as if barely a week goes by in the presidential campaign without one more otherwise once-in-a-decade, totally unexpected event occurring.

Almost relegated to the background in all this tumult are the multitude of criminal charges brought against Donald Trump, including 34 felony convictions in one case alone, which have only increased his favorability ratings to their highest level ever.

For starters, there was the Biden-Trump CNN debate fiasco in late June, in which President Biden virtually self-destructed in real time before a nationwide audience. At times incoherent and appearing hopelessly confused, Biden had no sooner left the debate stage than Democratic Party leaders, consultants and media types displayed their own levels of incoherence in expressing their shock and dismay over how poorly Biden had performed and their fear of his impending defeat in November, especially contrasted with Trump’s relatively effective performance. Biden insisted he was going forward, and conducted a media tour to rescue his terminally wounded candidacy.

While all this was taking place, Trump barely escaped death in Butler, Pennsylvania, when an attempted assassin’s bullet missed his skull by an inch, clipping his right ear and resulting in the iconic photo of his bloody defiance. Then there was the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, which, except for an overly long acceptance speech by Trump, worked to perfection. Trump’s path to victory seemed clear.

Then, out of nowhere on a Sunday afternoon, Biden announced that he would not run for re-election. Though he had won the overwhelming majority of delegates to the impending Democratic National Convention, he couldn’t withstand the coordinated move against him from all sides of the Democratic Party, from the actor George Clooney to party leaders Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries. Almost simultaneously with his withdrawal statement, Biden announced his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Though her favorability numbers had been lower than Biden’s, she unexpectedly surged into a dead heat with Trump. This was followed by a carefully choreographed Democratic Convention in Chicago, at which Harris appeared to make headway by repositioning herself as a moderate, not the progressive she had always been.

Seemingly caught off guard by Harris’s emergence, Trump made a number of unforced errors, including saying he hadn’t known until recently that Harris was black. He was clearly off his game. Polls showed Harris with a slight but growing edge. This was followed by their debate, in which Harris was acknowledged to be the victor.

Yet in another surprise development, the post-debate polls not only showed almost no real gain by Harris, but also found increased voter doubts about her on gut issues like immigration and the economy. It was now a horse race, and both sides were gearing up for the stretch run.
Then again came the unexpected: another assassination attempt against Trump, this time while he was playing the fifth hole of his Mar-a-Lago golf course. For days the media focused on this almost-tragedy. How did the Secret Service allow the would-be assassin to get so close to Trump so soon after the attempt in Butler in July? How much did incendiary rhetoric contribute to this political violence?

This tumultuous, unprecedented 2024 campaign is now in its final six weeks, and is back where it started in earnest almost a year ago. Despite all that has happened along the way, the polls show the race is too close to call. Hopefully the candidates and voters will use the time between now and Nov. 5 to focus on the issues.
Real people are hurt by high prices for groceries. It’s difficult for young people to obtain a mortgage to buy a home. Crime is real, and repeat offenders are back on the streets. Illegal immigration is rampant, and attacks by criminal gangs are increasing.

Overseas, Israel is fighting for its survival. The Russia-Ukraine war rages unabated, while China continues to expand its military and threaten its neighbors, particularly Taiwan and the Philippines.

Trump must do more than criticize current policies, and detail what measures he would take. Harris must do more than just say that she’s not Joe Biden. And all of us must live up to the responsibilities and challenges of living in a democracy.

Peter King is a former congressman, and a former chair of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Comments? pking@ liherald.com.