Some hits and some errors, but no game-changers — yet

Less than two months before Election Day, it’s anybody’s guess as to who will win the big prize. By the time this reaches print, the two major presidential candidates will have had their debate, which by itself may decide who has earned the label of frontrunner. But there are a few factors that could be deal breakers for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

A few months ago, virtually no one had heard of Project 2025. For any new readers, Project 2025 is the 900-page product of the Heritage Foundation, an ultra-conservative think tank that has enormous clout among Trump supporters. Among the organization’s major victories is its success in gaining support for Trump’s appointment of three Supreme Court justices, who were responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade.

Project 2025 is an-in depth outline of how a Trump presidency should be conducted if he is able to win a second term. Because it calls for a demolition of the federal government, it is fast becoming a major issue for Democrats, who vigorously claim that Trump has fully embraced its contents. Trump keeps denying even any knowledge of its existence. The denials have fallen flat, considering that the vast majority of the foundation staffers who wrote the manifesto worked in the previous Trump administration. Project 2025 may or may not become a problem for the Republican Party, depending on how many people come to understand its contents and how it would damage our democracy.

Aside from being saddled with that potential fallout, Republicans have yet to benefit from the candidacy of Sen. J.D. Vance in his role as Trump’s potential vice president. Vance was chosen before President Biden withdrew from the race, and it’s possible that if the Trump people had known that was going to happen, they would have chosen a female candidate who might resonate better with voters. But Vance got the nod with the blessing of Donald Trump Jr. and his brother Eric. To date, Vance has attracted much more negative press than positive, which is the last thing a presidential candidate needs.

Usually, candidates for high office are very carefully vetted, which includes reviewing their speeches and writings, and checking out their personal conduct. In Vance’s case, there appears to have been little perusal of any kind. He has made numerous speeches and written frequently, and many of those specimens have been the focus of negative press.

When Trump ran in 2016, Vance stated on Facebook, “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical A-hole like Nixon or he is an American Hitler.” He has also called Trump an “idiot” and compared him to Hitler. But Vance now sings Trump’s praises, calling him a historic candidate and “highly qualified.” Vance has also cast a few votes in his short tenure in the Senate that will haunt him right up to Nov. 5.

Harris’s campaign for the White House got off to a fast start, propelled by a well-run Democratic National Convention. She has attracted a broad range of support from young voters and women, and has been well received by minority voters. Her performance in this week’s debate may make or break her candidacy, or just keep her going until she gets a boost or makes a fatal mistake.

Trump has stumbled badly on the issue of women’s reproductive rights, and it’s doubtful that he can successfully get it off his back. He has claimed that he’s a strong supporter of women’s rights, but he can’t escape his own bragging about having been responsible for reversing Roe v. Wade. This issue will hurt Republican down-ballot candidates as well.

Eight weeks sound like a short time for most people, but in politics it feels like forever. On any one day, at any hour, a mistake can turn a campaign upside down. Having been involved in multiple campaigns as either a candidate or an analyst, I know how easy it can be for a politician to implode. So, like Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over till it’s over.

Jerry Kremer was an assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He now heads Empire Government Strategies, a business development and legislative strategy firm. Comments about this column? jkremer@liherald.com.